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Mbeki flexes muscle
Njabulo Ncube Chief Political Reporter
SA leader sets tone for talks to end Zim crisis
SOUTH African President Thabo Mbeki — thrown at the deep-end of the country's complex socio-economic crisis — has moved swiftly to set the tone on the urgency and seriousness the region is attaching to the resolution of the Zimbabwean crisis by spelling out his plans and expectations as mediator in letters delivered to the feuding political parties.
Soon after being appointed facilitator to the volatile situation obtaining across the Limpopo, threatening to explode across the Southern African Development Community (SADC), Mbeki has wasted no time, signifying the urgency with which the 14-member bloc is attaching to the crisis.
Last week the divided Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) delivered a joint document to Pretoria at the request of Mbeki outlining their position on how best they believe a solution to the crisis might be reached amid indications that the ruling party, which is said to be apprehensive at the terrific pace of the developments, had also argued its case.
Diplomatic sources said Mbeki's letters contain broad parameters for the resumption of delicate talks between ZANU PF and both MDC factions while reiterating his earlier plea to both parties that conditions should not stand in the way of dialogue.
"While he (Mbeki) says he has been mandated by the SADC emergency summit to mediate in the Zimbabwean crisis, he states in the letters that it is Zimbabweans themselves that should be able to define and solve their problems," said the source. "He is basically asking for ZANU PF and the MDC to come up with their suggestions for the agenda. He wants the mediation process to be successful, that it delivers a permanent solution. He has given a kind of a shell, and he is asking the parties to fill that shell," added the source.
Simon Khaya Moyo, Zimbabwe's ambassador to South Africa who has endeared himself to President Robert Mugabe as Harare's pointman, delivered Mbeki's letter to Harare over Easter.
Earlier, the two secretaries general of the rival MDC factions, Tendai Biti and Welshman Ncube, had handed over their parties' documents to the African National Congress (ANC), just as the South African leader announced a team, headed by Sydney Mufamadi, a ruling ANC official, to lead the early stages of the mediation.
All sides have agreed on the need for secrecy on the talks, but The Financial Gazette understands that Mbeki's letter outlines the brief given to him by the SADC extraordinary summit in Tanzania last month, and how he intends to steer the mediation effort.
Diplomatic sources revealed this week that Mbeki has a tough task cut out for him because the feuding parties were at sea with each other in terms of their positions.
Division within the main opposition party and the discord fermenting in the ruling ZANU PF party over the choice of candidate to stand in next year's presidential elections has not helped the situation either, they said.
Whereas at the centre of both the MDC factions' demands is the need for a people-driven constitution guaranteeing free and fair elections, ZANU PF, which has endorsed President Mugabe as its candidate in next year's polls, is content with it and believes the project to harmonise the elections would suffice.
"There is no meeting of minds whatsoever, which makes the task extremely difficult. The only saving grace is that South Africa has successfully intervened in trickier situations such as Burundi where relations had completely broken down to the extent of exchanging gunfire," said the diplomat.
Mbeki, they said, is proceeding cautiously, mindful of the fact that his facilitation should be within the SADC framework hence the regional body's troika has to be actively involved at some stage.
Diplomatic sources said the immediate challenge is now to get the major parties to agree on the terms of reference that would form the nucleus of the talks.
"Once the process reaches an advanced stage, then Mbeki can now come to Zimbabwe to see the process through," added the diplomat.
MDC faction leader Morgan Tsvangirai yesterday confirmed receiving Mbeki's letter, adding that he had already sent a response to the South African leader.
"I can confirm that I have received a letter from President Mbeki and have since replied to it. We as the MDC want to see how President Mbeki is going to resolve this crisis. We wish him well," said the former trade unionist. Tsvangirai declined to elaborate. "It is a confidential letter to me to which I have similarly replied confidentially."
Tsvangirai said there was increased urgency on the part of SADC to resolve the Zimbabwean crisis, which he said would bring President Mugabe to the negotiating table.
Poverty has consumed 80 percent of the country's estimated 13 million people, with about two million having left in search of greener pastures. At about 1700 percent, Zimbabwe's inflation rate is the highest in the world.
"The events that led to the SADC emergency summit in Tanzania recently and the appointment of President Mbeki as mediator put the Zimbabwean crisis in the fore. This crisis is going to be resolved through negotiation. ZANU PF and the MDC are going to negotiate under the tutelage and facilitation of President Mbeki," he said.
Information Minister Sikhanyiso Ndlovu refused to discuss the latest SADC moves and pressure, saying the matter was confidential. "These are private presidential issues, on which I cannot comment," said Ndlovu.
Gabriel Chaibva, the spokesman for Arthur Mutambara's faction of the MDC, was also reluctant to speak on the matter.
While Tsvangirai was mum on details of his response to President Mbeki, he said both Biti and Ncube had emphasised to the ANC and South African officials involved in the delicate mediation process that a roadmap proposed by the opposition last year was the only viable solution to the crisis.
It is however, understood that a key demand of the MDC is a new constitution, and that far reaching electoral reforms be made before the elections next year.
President Mugabe, on the other hand, has said he would only talk to the MDC if it recognises him as the legitimately elected leader of the country.
Mbeki told the Financial Times last week that ensuring free and fair elections would be his top priority, but without more specific benchmarks for the success of the talks, the absence of set timetables and increasing government intransigence, it is doubtful his latest initiative can succeed.
Political analysts say President Mbeki, who has been under fierce attack from the West and opposition over his so-called quiet diplomacy, has his reputation at stake if he fails to crack the Zimbabwe crisis second time around.
"All along, Mbeki has tried to find a solution as a concerned neighbour without any regional pressure but now he is acting on instructions from a SADC summit, which wants conditions acceptable by all within the next 11 months," an analyst said yesterday.
Another sign of the urgency the region attaches to the resolution of the Zimbabwean problem was the arrival in Harare yesterday of SADC executive secretary, Tomaz Augusto Salamao, to assess the economic situation in the country.
A communiqué at the end of the SADC summit in Tanzania said the region would "undertake a study on the economic situation in Zimbabwe and propose measures on how SADC can assist Zimbabwe recover economically." There are no indications however, as to what form this economic assistance would take.
Salamao yesterday held discussions with President Mugabe at State House, following earlier meetings with Foreign Affairs Minister Simbarashe Mumbengegwi and Chief Secretary to the President and Cabinet, Misheck Sibanda.
There was speculation yesterday that the government had deliberately delayed the release of inflation figures for March, expected to be above 2000 percent, in response to Salamao's visit. But officials said the delay was "technical".
In South Africa, Mbeki's spokesman, Mukoni Ratshitanga, denied reports that the South African president himself was preparing to visit Harare. But he said Mbeki had set himself an urgent task to get assurances from both sides that campaigning for next year's polls would be peaceful.
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